We're mid-way through May and today I bring you a personal update, a fun reader giveaway, and an in-depth look at the latest trends in our local housing market.  But first...

If you will be selling your house soon, or if you are starting to consider a home purchase, I'd be delighted to help you with the process.  Reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.  

You can also subscribe to my daily email newsletter to learn more about the market and the buying and selling process over time.

Since my last update, I had a great time running in the Park to Park Half Marathon (Stuarts Draft to Waynesboro) and in the Perfect Day 50K.  

This was the start of who knows which lap of the (10) 5K laps at the Perfect Day 50K on the Western Slopes of Massanutten.

Given what appear to be rain drops, i think this was the last (10th) 5K loop.  The rain held off all the way until the end of the day.

Dirty shoes, tired legs, but I made it through.

I don't have my next race planned yet - I plan to just do some running because I enjoy running over the coming weeks and months. One such fun run will be on Saturday morning out at Natural Chimneys during the Red Wing Roots Music Festival... coming up before we know it... June 20 - 22.  

Red Wing is always a highlight of my summer -- great music, a beautiful setting, wonderful community and more.  If you haven't been before, consider coming out for the day on Saturday, coming each day, or getting a campsite and staying over!  

If you're feeling lucky, enter for a chance to win (2) three day tickets to Red Wing here.  If you're not feeling as lucky, just go ahead and buy the tickets here.  ;-)

Now, after all that, let's take a look at the latest data and trends in our local housing market.  I will warn you up front that there are some interesting, somewhat contradictory and perplexing numbers to consider this month...

The 100 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in April 2025 marked an 11% decline from 112 a year ago and a 22% decline from two years ago.  April was a much slower than usual month in our local market.

Expanding the scope a bit, the past three months (Feb - Apr) have also been slower than normal with a 15% decline in the number of homes that are selling this year as compared to the same timeframe last year.

When we look back a full 12 months, however, we see that there have been 7% more home sales than in the previous year.  So, we were starting to see an increase in home sales over the past year... but that has slowed considerably over the past few months.

Prices, meanwhile, are increasing but more slowly than in recent years.  Looking at a 3-month, 6-month and 12-month timeframe we're seeing a 2%, 3% and 4% increase in the median sales price. 

So... we're seeing fewer home sales here lately... but median sales prices are still increasing.

Let's take attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) out of the mix and see how things change...

If you have been trying to buy a detached home you might have had an even more difficulty time doing so over the past few months.  We have seen 21% fewer detached home sales over the past three months (Feb-Apr) compared to the same time last year.

I'll pause there, though, to point out a context for all of this that has not yet been shown in the numbers.  

Fewer home sales is typically a result of either fewer buyers wanting to buy or fewer sellers being willing to sell.  When I say (above) that it is difficult to buy a detached home, that is because the current reduction in home sales seems to be almost entirely a result of fewer sellers selling... not fewer buyers wanting to buy.

You'll see this more clearly when we get to some inventory trends below.

Back to the detached homes... those sales have dropped 21% over the past three months (compared to the same three months last year) as compared to a 15% market-wide drop... but the median sales price of those detached homes has increased 9% over the past year.

Perhaps the comparatively tighter detached home market has created more upward pressure on prices?

In contrast, let's see what's happening with attached homes...

We are also seeing a decrease in attached home sales (townhomes, duplexes and condos) but it is not as significant (-5%) as the overall market (-15%). 

 

Meanwhile, in contrast to the 9% year over year increase in the median sales price of detached homes... we're only seeing a 2% year over year increase in the median sales price of attached homes.

Breaking things down geographically, here's the last in City home sales...

My oh my!  City homeowners just don't want to sell.  We have seen a 42% drop (from 76 to 44) in City home sales when comparing the past three months (Feb-Apr) to the same months last year.

Just as with detached homes, along with a larger decrease in the number of homes that are selling, we're seeing a larger increase in the median sales price.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

The decrease in home sales in the City (-42%) over the past three months is much more significant than in the County (-7%) over the same timeframe.

And, perhaps as we would therefore expect, the increase in the median sales price in the City (+8%) is much more significant than in the County (+3%) over the past year.

What happens when we take out new homes and just look at the resale market?  Let's take a look...

Refreshing your memory... here's are three figures from the overall (new and resale) market... side by side with resale (existing) home sales only...

# Home Sales (Feb-Apr):  -15% all homes, -16% resale homes

# Home Sales (12 months):  +7% all homes, +3% resale homes

Median Sales Price (12 months):  +4% all homes, +10% resale homes

So... if you're selling a resale home (particularly if it is a detached home and/or in the City of Harrisonburg) you should find a strong pool of buyers and will likely sell for a favorable price.

Now, on to the graphs, so... fewer numbers, more lines, and perhaps a bit easier to see the directionality and magnitude of the trends...

All four months thus far in 2025 have shown fewer home sales (red line) than during the same month last year (blue line) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Thus far, 2025 has been a comparatively slower year for home sales as you can also see here...

The 343 home sales seen in the first four months of 2025 is the slowest start to a year that we have seen at least since 2021.  Will we start to see more home sales as we continue through 2025?  Or will this be the slowest year for home sales over the past five years?

The median sales price (green line) is still rising -- but more slowly over the past year (+3%) than in the overall market (+10%) though keep in mind that this 3% is market-wide and the increase is more significant when looking just at detached homes, or City homes, or resale homes.

And... after we saw the amount of home sales activity (blue line) rising through 2024 we have seen that turn back around and start to decline for each month in 2025.

But yet... a bright spot?

The first three months of the year showed lower (much lower) numbers of contracts being signed (by buyers and sellers) but the April figure (134) was only barely below last year (139) in what could be (?) a sign that we're starting to see 2025 pick up a little steam.

Further reinforcing that possibility...

We are seeing a very similar amount of pending (under contract) listings right now compared to where we were a year ago -- even after this metric was floating lower than last year in the early months of 2025.

And circling back to the context of inventory mentioned earlier...

A month ago we were seeing inventory (red line) rise steadily... and it seemed we might see it pop above last year's levels.  But, alas, for better or for worse, that did not happen.  The market is still maintaining lower inventory levels now than we saw a year ago... confirming that the decrease in home sales in 2025 is almost entirely a supply side issue.

And finally (last graph) mortgage interest rates are a lot more predictable now than they have been for many stretches over the past 10 years.  We are seeing them stay pretty consistently between 6.5% and 7% over the pas six months and even over most of the past 12 months.

So, what does all of this mean for you if you're thinking about selling your home or considering a home purchase?

If you're preparing to sell your home...

[1]  We can't conclude anything about your home's value based on this market-wide analysis - we will need to look more closely at your home's price range, property type, location, age, features, etc. to determine the market value of your home.

[2]  Many (though not all) price ranges, property types and locations are seeing a shortage of sellers and a surplus of buyers.  This should be a benefit to you when we list your house for sale.

[3]  Carefully prepared, properly priced and extensively marketed homes still sell for the best price and with the most favorable terms.  Let's chat about how to optimize each of those areas (preparation, pricing, marketing) for your home.

If you hope to buy a home this spring or summer...

[1]  Let's start looking soon -- the longer the timeframe we have to consider homes, the more options you will have to find the best home for you.

[2]  Let's chat about your hopes, dreams and goals for your home purchase, and your budget, and then we can start dialing into the locations and neighborhoods where we are mostly likely to find your next home.

[3]  When the perfect home hits the market it will probably be perfect for more buyers than just you - so go ahead and get preapproved for a mortgage today so that you are ready to pursue a home you love.

If you have questions about any of the data or trends I have outlined above... or if you're wondering how it applies to your home, neighborhood or situation... feel free to reach out anytime by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email.

Finally, if it would be helpful to meet to talk about your thoughts and questions about selling or buying... or to talk about improvements you might make to your home... or to talk about running... or to talk about Red Wing... just let me know.  I'm happy to meet up with you over coffee or at my office.