Between 2019 and 2022 we saw an ever increasing number of buyers buying homes (or trying to do so) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Demand for homes skyrocketed, mortgage interest rates fell to historic lows, supply increased a bit (new builds) but not a enough... and perhaps unsurprisingly, median home prices increased 10% per year for three years in a row.

But then, 2023...

Mortgage interest rates have increased 30% over the past year, and have increased 150% over the past two years, making mortgage payments higher than ever.

But yet, the median sales price keeps rising.

Demand seems to be falling, with 24% fewer home sales in the first eight months of 2023 as compared to the same timeframe last year.

But yet, the median sales price keeps rising.

Supply is now starting to increase, with 31% more active listings on the market now as compared to a year ago.

But yet, the median sales price keeps rising.

What comes next!?

As I pointed out yesterday, the higher inventory levels are only higher than the Covid-era lows, and are in line with or lower than pre-Covid levels.

And certainly, fewer home sales may be a result of fewer sellers selling just as much as it may be a result of fewer buyers trying to buy.

So, over the next two years, will we potentially see slower home sales, higher mortgage interest rates, higher inventory levels -- and yet, still see stability and/or increases in the median sales price?  Yes, it seems quite possible.

Or, could slower home sales, mortgage interest rates and higher inventory levels lead to a decline in the median sales price?  This seems more likely, in theory, but we're just not seeing it yet, and I don't know if we'll see it at all.