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Do You Think Harrisonburg's Student Housing Vacancy Rates Are High Now? You Haven't Seen Anything Yet! |
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 As reported in detail at hburgnews, a new student housing complex is one step closer to being built on South Main Street. The 60 acre tract is proposed to feature 466 apartments for college students --- but wait, certainly the developer would first be examining the state of the current student housing market --- right?? Let's take a quick look at what has happened over the past several years in Harrisonburg's student housing market: In Fall 2007, there was a relatively even balance between JMU students living off campus, and housing available for said students. There were 11,654 students, and approximately the same number of "beds" (bedrooms in apartments, etc) available for those students. Between Fall 2007 and Fall 2009 the the number of off campus students increased by 382 students. But.... there were 3,313 new beds for these students! This huge increase in housing included new complexes (Charleston Townes, North 38, Campus View Condos, 865 East, Copper Beach, Urban Exchange) and additions to current complexes (Sunchase, new JMU residence hall). This left an off campus vacancy of roughly 20% --- with 12,036 off campus students compared to 14,967 off campus beds for students. While growth is still occurring at JMU, it is quite slow because of state budget cuts for higher education. Thus, the vacancy rate for Fall 2010 will likely only decline to 18.5%, and per my projections, by the time we get to Fall 2013, there will still be an off campus vacancy rate of 15% --- with 13,090 off campus students compared to 15,387 off campus beds for students. But it seems that a company out of Glen Allen, VA is ready to jump into this exciting student housing market, add help pump that vacancy rate up even higher. This new community will bring 466 apartments, described as 1, 2 and 4 bedroom apartments, laid out per the site plan below.  Let's assume 1/3 of the apartments are 1 bedroom, 1/3 are 2 bedrooms, and 1/3 have 4 bedrooms. This equates to roughly 1,087 new beds for students. They'd like to have them finished for Fall 2011, which means we'll have 12,588 off campus students available to fill 16,286 off campus beds, shooting us up to 23% off campus vacancy. But the best part yet --- where will this student housing be located? Next to JMU campus? In the midst of other student housing? No and No. This complex is quite a distance from JMU.  Again, read more at hburgnews, as there are a few detailed comments on that site that explain some of the history of the property. SUMMARY: Student housing vacancy in Harrisonburg currently hovers around 20%. A developer is planning to build, likely increasing the vacancy rate to 23%. If I were the developer, I would not develop it as a student housing complex in this community at this time. What are your thoughts? Questions? | |
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Scott Rogers
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Do they have to declare it as student housing or is it just assumed based on the style of apartments there? Can they just build the apartments and whoever wants to live there can? It's hard for me to believe a complex would or could turn non-students away when there are vacancies and not enough students applying to live there.
May 19, 2010 2:09 am
Here's the conundrum:
If they don't advertise it as student housing, students probably won't consider it, since it is so much further away than all of their other options. Perhaps they think it won't succeed unless they have some, most, all students in the complex, so perhaps they think they have to advertise it as student housing in order to be on the radar for students.
BUT.....if they advertise it as student housing, there won't be too many non-students who will live there, because they likely don't want to be surrounded by students.
FURTHERMORE.....they are certainly basing the types of units, the amenities, etc., based on their assumption that it will be college students living there.
I think they'd be much better off to build it for non students --- since there is such an oversupply of student housing.
May 19, 2010 2:13 am
Hm, it just surprises me that there can be so many vacancies... it seems if the rent is competitive and they market a couple buildings in a student complex to non-students, they could fill at least some of the vacancies. The 20%+ stat is surprisingly high.
May 19, 2010 4:01 am
The vacancy is incredibly high --- but remember, 3,300 new beds were constructed within 2 years, when only 400 were needed. That's why the vacancy jumped so much.
May 19, 2010 10:27 pm
Details of the housing proposal from the City Council meeting packet
May 20, 2010 10:16 am
I'm intrigued by the thought process that goes into approving such projects. If city council already recognizes the excess that exists, why would they approve another development? Further, after the outcome of Springfest seems as if they would be more mindful of allowing the building of complexes that would hold this many students. Finally, how is this one going us and "The Overlook" (off Stone Spring Road) seems to be at an indefinite standstill? Why did that development hault? I assumed it was because of the surplus in student housing, and if that is indeed the case, is city council not concerned that the same could happen in this case?
May 20, 2010 4:54 pm
Tisha -- the interesting decision was several years ago when City Council approved the residential rezoning of this property when staff and Planning Commission advised against it. The recent approval is a bit less controversial, since the land had already been approved for residential use, and since the new plan was more attractive from a density perspective.
The Overlook at Stone Spring was also planning to try to appeal to the high end tenants --- but it stopped --- I also assume as a result of the oversupply of student housing. I'm curious to see if this new project will in fact move forward given all of the extra student housing currently available.
Stay tuned!!
May 22, 2010 3:32 am
In the last two years, city council has been concerned and opposed to the potential development of student housing just outside of the city limits on Port Republic Road and on South Valley Pike in Rockingham County. The developers in both instances were local developers, not out of town investors. The city expressed their concerns to the county because they felt there were too many vacancies to be filled with existing units and to add any more would not be prudent. In both cases, the county held the developers up until they agreed not allow student housing. So why would the city even consider this new student housing complex?
May 23, 2010 9:07 pm
Bill,
Thank you for your comments. I'm trying to recall the proposed development out on Port Republic Road and South Valley Pike. Can you remind me of the details of either of those projects?
Though, even with that context, I believe this property was already re-zoned several years ago for residential (student housing?) use -- perhaps at the same time as the Rockingham County properties were under discussion?
I am curious as to whether this developer will actually proceed. I suppose we'll have to wait and see --- for a while I thought the development on Stone Spring Road would happen (since site work began), but that seems to be indefinitely delayed.
May 24, 2010 12:16 am
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