Over at hburgnews I noticed a link to a new study from the Weldon Cooper Center indicating that the Harrisonburg / Rockingham County MSA has grown roughly 13% between 2000 and 2009.  [ read more at hburgnews ]

Knowing that home sales have decreased during the same time period, I thought I'd see how the two data sets lined up.  First, though, please note that:

• Home sales in 2009 (813 sales) are only barely below 2000 levels (829 sales).
• Of more interest is that home sales zoomed from 829 (in 2000) all the way up to 1,669 (in 2005) before significantly declining again.

This graph shows something (somewhat) similar --- a higher percentage (1.43%) of our population bought a home in 2005 than the percentage in 2000 (0.77%) and 2009 (0.66%). 

As I ponder this data, I wonder what will be "normal" over the next 20 years as to what percentage of our population will buy a home in any given year. Is 0.77% the magic number (shown in 2000 and 2008)?  If so, home sales were depressed in 2009 (how surprising).  Or perhaps we should expect about 1% of our population to buy a home each year. 

The most pressing question in my mind is when we will start to see an increase again in home sales --- both as a raw number, and as a percentage of the population.  I thought we'd see in 2008 (we did not).  I thought we'd see it in 2009 (we did not).  I think the third time might be the charm, and we'll see home sales (quantity, not sales prices) increase in 2010.  What do you think?

Also, another interesting way to look at the data above is as follows:

• In 2000, one in every 130 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2001, one in every 103 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2002, one in every 97 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2003, one in every 85 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2004, one in every 76 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2005, one in every 70 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2006, one in every 82 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2007, one in every 96 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2008, one in every 130 residents bought a home.
  
• In 2009, one in every 151 residents bought a home.