I rarely make real estate sales predictions --- mainly because in the rare occasion that I do, I'm usually wrong.  More on this in a few days.  That being said, I believe we're seeing the specific effect of the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit (that was recently extended) here in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. 

Check out how November sales figures will likely play out . . .



We've already seen 34 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in the first 17 days of November.  Compare that to how many occurred in Nov 1-17, 2008 versus Nov 18-30, 2008, and I have extrapolated a final sales count of 65 home sales this November.  I will likely be wrong --- I think it will be even higher.

The second version of the first time buyer tax credit was to end on November 30th, so there are quite a few purchasers already in the queue waiting to close at the end of this month. 

Do you want further evidence? The median sales price of the homes that have sold this month is $177,623, compared to the year to date median of $190,000.  We're seeing more inexpensive (first time buyer type) homes selling this fall.

Any counter prediction out there?  What do you think?  And what do you think we'll see in those typically stagnant months of December and January??