For the past three years (2006, 2007, 2008) we have seen a decline in the number of home sales in the 3rd Quarter (July, August, September) as compared to the 2nd Quarter (April, May, June).  These "seasonal" declines were 8%, 8% and 1% respectively.

This year, we saw a 15% INCREASE in sales in the 3rd Quarter as compared to the 2nd Quarter.  As stated, above, I have to conclude that either the First Time Buyer Tax Credit is working (creating more sales as we near the tax credit deadline), or our local real estate market is improving.  Or, I suppose, both could be occuring --- either independently, or as cause and effect.

If the tax credit is extended or expanded, I hypothesize that we'll continue to see an improving local market.  If the tax credit is not extended nor expanded, we'll then perhaps be able to determine whether the 2009-Q3 home sale extravaganza was related to the tax credit, or an improving market.

Stay tuned!