I hope you enjoy this brief overview of the June 2009 market report...



Read on for a full review of the state of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market.  Or....download the full report:
June 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report



While the pace of home sales continues to decline (25% lower in 2009 than in 2008), the median and average sales price continue to stay relatively steady in our local real estate market --- showing a 2.5% decline (median) and 0.2% decline (average) when comparing the first six months of 2008 to the first six months of 2009.  Our market continues to out-perform most other markets in Virginia, evading the 20% - 40% loss in home values seen in many areas.



In this graph, we see that 2009 sales volume (purple line) is still hovering well below 2008 sales volume (blue line) --- but we are seeing the predictable seasonal increase in home sales during the summer months.  The remainder of 2009 will be interesting to observe, as many first time buyers close on properties prior to December 1st to obtain the $8,000 tax credit.  July always takes a slight dip, so we'll see if that holds true for 2009.



This graph captures all residential real estate activity as reflected in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham MLS.  The 2009 year-to-date sales figures now include six months of sales data, and show only a slight decline in median sales prices ($195,500 to $190,000).  They sales volume (yellow bars), however, continue to decline.



When examining only single family home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County we see that the median sales price continues to decline at a relatively slow rate (1%, 4%, 3%) when comparing 2009 to 2008 -- the good news is that single family homes (as a whole) aren't losing value as they are in many other markets.



When examining only townhome sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County we note that while the sales volume has dropped dramatically since 2005 (-18%, -15%, -37%), the median sales price has gained during that time period (2005 vs. 2009) and has stayed relatively steady between 2006 and 2009.



This graph shows a normalized trend of home sales by charting the ongoing sum of the preceding 12 months' sales.  We continue to see a decline in this metric, and likely will until the pace of sales stops its decline.



Inventory levels have stayed relatively level over the past three months, and have declined as compared to a year ago (932 vs. 956).  Lower inventory levels will (slowly) lead to a healthier local real estate market, as a balance between buyers and sellers returns.



With inventory levels holding steady, the number of months of supply of homes in the three lower price ranges noted above has stayed relatively steady.  We continue to see an increase in supply of $400k+ homes as compared to the sale pace of these homes.



After a relatively sharp decline in median price per square foot between 2008-Q2 and 2008-Q4, we have now seen an increase over the past two quarters in this metric.  This may be any early indicator of the stabilization of our local market, as the price that buyers are willing to pay per livable space stabilizes.



The chart above examines time on market for homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during the past six months.  Homes with the lowest price points are selling the quickest, and homes in the upper price ranges are taking the longest time to sell. 

For example, overall only 11% of homes took longer than 1 year to sell, but 26% of homes selling over $400,000 took longer than a year to sell. 

Of note, the average days-on-market has actually declined since last month's market report.  Last month's report showed an average of 193 days, compared to the new overall average of 188 days.



When examining new single family homes in our local market, we see a steady decline since 2005 in the number of homes that are selling (yellow bars) accompanied by a slow decrease in the median price per square foot since 2006 (green line).  Of note, the  current median price/sf is still well above the 2005 level.



The graph above depicts the number of lots (less than 1 acre) selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County since 2000.  We continue to see only a small number of buyers in the market for building lots, with only 14 such closings having occurred during the first six months of this year.



Land sales (tracts larger than 1 acre) have also markedly decreased since 2005, but aside from the spike of activity in 2005, the pace of these land sales remained relatively constant between 2002 and 2007.  Last year, and the projected figures for this year show that there are very few buyers in the market for land at this time.

Download the full report here:
June 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report