This past week the Daily News Record published an article about the new housing complexes being built to house JMU students.  I believe the uninformed reader of the article would assume that there is a relatively good balance between students and housing --- but according to my calculations there is a significant oversupply of student housing for JMU students!

Here are the numbers...

• On-Campus Headcount has increased (or is projected to increase) by 1,500 students between Fall 2007 and Fall 2009.
• In this same two year time period new housing developments have accounted for 3,340 new "beds".

Why will this oversupply exist?

• The Daily News Record consistently uses enrollment figures creatively to exaggerate JMU growth, though I won't speculate as to whether it is innocent or intentional.  If you compare the figures in the DNR article with JMU enrollment projections, you'll see that they use a lower enrollment metric (students taking classes at the JMU campus) when referring to past enrollment figures, and they use a higher enrollment metric (students taking classes at the JMU campus, or anywhere else) when referring to current or future enrollment figures.  The result is that JMU growth seems more significant than it actually is.  Take a few minutes to see where on the JMU enrollment projections page they pulled the figures in paragraph 3 and 4 of the DNR article, and you'll start to see the errors in their comparisons.  Their "8 percent increase from last fall" is actually a 5.5 percent increase if you use the same metric for the two data points.  Is this simply an error, or does 8 percent sound better than only 5.5 percent?
• Harrisonburg created an incentive (with good intentions) for student housing developers to build now, now, now.  Much of the land in the City that was annexed several decades ago was zoned R-3, which allowed (until recently) a property owner to build student housing (in the form of three-story apartment buildings) without asking for permission.  Much of this R-3 land was adjacent to single family home neighborhoods, and thus Harrisonburg took this "use by right" out of the R-3 zoning classification.  R-3 property owners were left with a three year window of time in which they could build this higher density housing (student housing) without asking for permission -- and thus the construction began!

Don't Build Anymore!  My concern when I read an article such as the one that ran last week in the DNR is that a local (or out of town) developer will read the article and will decide to build more student housing because of the (exaggerated) enrollment growth and the (fictional) even balance between students and housing.  If you're a student housing developer feel free to contact me (540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) to discuss this further --- but please don't start building more student housing before completing a thorough market study beyond the figures reported in the Daily News Record.

Tell Your Friends!  Last week I was told of a (usually) well informed local business leader who was convinced that JMU will be growing to 30,000 and then 40,000 students within the next 5 - 10 years.  This type of casual conversation will lead to an even wider sentiment that we need more student housing in Harrisonburg --- and this individual is often in conversation with student housing developers.

I'm stepping down from my soap box now, but I hope that student housing developers, and those that advise them, will carefully study our market before continuing on a rampage of building college student housing!