A Turning Point In The Market?


A Turning Point In The Market?
November 11, 2007 Filed In: market
October 2007 --- mark it (retroactively) on your calendar --- the first month where sales exceeded the corresponding month in 2006. For the past 9 months (Jan '07 - Sep '07), we saw lower sales each month than the same month in the previous year. However, that all changed in October --- and while it is certainly too early to call it a trend, it does suggest that some changes may be afoot in our local market. It is also interesting to observe that in 2004 and 2005 there was a very similar upwards tick in sales when looking at September and October. Additionally, in those two years, November and December were strong months. We will have to patiently wait to see how the next few months progress, but October sales are either an abnormality, or are an indication that a new sales trend has begun in our local market. The Details: The graph below shows the number of sales per month as reported by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham MLS in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. You'll note that the blue line (2007) has been significantlybelow the green line (2006) all year until October.
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Sep 10, 2010 (unless otherwise noted).
Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@cbfunkhouser.com
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Close Comments 3 Comments so far . . . Al Patel: Very interesting month to month analysis. Just goes to prove how local real estate is. Seems like your market hit an all time low in September and is turning around. You are right, it is too early to be a trend but does show positive movement. It will be interesting to see how National numbers compare to your local market. November 12, 2007 2:01 pm John: One month does not a trend make, as Yoda would say. Until lenders start loosening the purstrings, this will not get any better. You may see months that buck the trend, but as a whole, we are not headed towards a recovery yet. The past few years saw huge numbers of first time homebuyers who in any other era would not have been able to buy (due to credit, income, etc) and rampant speculation by investors. Those sales drove the market during the boom. The speculators have decreased greatly in numbers. Most are sitting on the sidelines. All of those buyers who have spotty credit, income or debt issues, etc. are boxed out now -- no one is willing to lend them money. And rightly so! Given what is happening to the credit markets worldwide, many of those loans should never have been done in the first place. The credit markets were authorizing and buying plain stupid stuff for a couple years, and now they are doing just about nothing. Once THAT returns to some normalcy (with lenders making reasonabl loans to reasonable folks) we'll see the market pick up as more buyers re-enter the market. November 30, 2007 9:22 am Scott Rogers: One month is definitely not a trend! That's one reason why I found it so humorous that only September's data was used a few weeks ago to make some generalizations. http://www.scottprogers.com/blog/archives/2007/11/home-sales-down--percent-in-september_1194430825/index.php?f=1 I'm looking forward to November numbers to see if sales have kept increasing, or whether October was a fluke! November 30, 2007 9:33 am Add A Comment: Name (required) E-mail (required, not published) Website Prove you're not a comment-spammer . . .